132 AI Model Training Compute Costs = ~2,400x Growth Over Eight Years, per Epoch AI & Stanford Note: Costs are estimates. Excludes most Chinese models due to lack of reliable cost data. Source: Epoch AI via Nestor Maslej et al., ‘The AI Index 2025 Annual Report,’ AI Index Steering Committee, Stanford HAI (4/25); In Good Company podcast (6/24) Estimated Training Cost of Frontier AI Models – 2016-2024, per Epoch AI & Stanford Training Cost, USD (Log Scale) Approx. +2,400x Right now, [AI model training costs] $100 million. There are models in training today that are more like a billion. Right. I think if we go to $10 or $100 billion, and I think that will happen in 2025, 2026, maybe 2027… …I think that the training of…$10 billion models, yeah, could start sometime in 2025. - Anthropic Co-Founder & CEO Dario Amodei (6/24) AI Model Compute Costs High / Rising + Inference Costs Per Token Falling = Performance Converging + Developer Usage Rising