181 So…We Have…High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers…Others TBD… …Uber burned -$17B* between 2016 and 2022 (and materially more before that) before its first free cash flow-positive year in 2023. In 2022, it had 131MM monthly active platform consumers. Uber’s last equity financing was a Series G. Its fully-diluted IPO market cap was $82B, now $189B. Tesla burned -$9.2B between 2009 and 2018 before becoming free cash flow positive in 2019. In the ten years between 2009 and 2018, it lost a cumulative -$5.6B delivering ~540K vehicles. It went public in 2010 at a market cap of $1.6B. From 2019-2024, it then earned $40B delivering 6.7MM vehicles. Its market cap is now $1.1T. It is important to remember – most of the time, when all is said and done – a business’s valuation should represent the present value of its future free cash flows. The aforementioned companies – with aggressive cash burn – tested this premise hard, built large-scale data-driven network effects based on product excellence / constant improvement, developed technology-driven competitive advantage and ultimately proved the naysayers wrong. Only time will tell which side of the money-making equation the current AI aspirants will land. *Measured as unlevered free cash flow. Note: Present market capitalization figures are shown as of 5/14/25.
