179 …Revenue-per-User Multiple – OpenAI = In-the-Range Note: OpenAI figures are estimates as of 4/25. All other public-company figures are as of 12/31/24, using CY2024 data. OpenAI data uses WAUs due to data availability (conservatively assumed as MAUs); other figures use MAUs. Here we assume average weekly active ChatGPT users of 300MM based off OpenAI’s 12/24 disclosure. We estimate 2024 ChatGPT revenue of $3.7B, per company estimates. Monthly active user figures are estimates for Alphabet based off website traffic measurements & global internet user data. Meta last reported MAPs for app family in Q4:23, we conservatively assume no growth since. Source: Capital IQ (12/24), The Information (4/25 and prior) (link, link, link, link & link), Semrush (11/24), Morgan Stanley, ITU, company disclosures, BOND estimates Annual Revenue per User, $ $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 OpenAI Alphabet Meta Spotify Pinterest Duolingo Median = $23 So…We Have…High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers…Others TBD… OpenAI sees high valuation despite mid-pack annual revenue per user Estimated Annual Revenue Per User ($) – 2024, per Capital IQ, Morgan Stanley, Semrush, The Information & Company Disclosures
